JM Grain Market News
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Harvest for pulse crops is in full swing in our growing region.
The general consensus is low yields. As expected wide spread drought and unseasonal high temps in July have reduced the size of the crop. Chickpeas remain the only unknown as harvest is just starting. Peas and Lentils were less than half of last years yields. Markets have reacted on peas and lentils, there is a general bullish tone as supplies will be tight. Early reports in Canada’s pulse growing region are the same low yields however harvest is only starting.
The two factors preventing the market moving up are the unknown yield and quality out of Canada and the lack of buying from India. Pending the early low yields are set the tone for the overall Canadian crop green lentils green peas and yellow pea prices will have potential to remain strong and increase. Red lentils are still burdened from last years record crop.
Have a safe and Happy Harvest.
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Happy 4 of July to everyone:
The Drought of the northern plains continues:
Peas Lentils and Chickpeas are grown in the same region as Spring Wheat. The spring wheat market has been the fireworks of the commodity markets.
With a week of hot dry weather forecasted over the entire growing region for peas lentils and chickpeas look for the market to respond on all. I personally cant remember temperatures in the 100’s in early July for such a widespread area. All significant pulse producing regions of North America will be well above seasonal highs which will reduce yield.
The crop conditions of the spring wheat crop in North Dakota are the worst since the historic drought of 1988.
Next week the Global pulse confederation and the Canadian Special Crops Association has a joint annual conference in Vancouver. The dry weather will be a discussion point as traders from around the Globe will meet. JM Grain will attend the event and will be issuing market reports and tweets.
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Market Report 6-30-2017
Markets for pulse crops are keenly focused on production of 2017 crop. Dry conditions exist and have done damage in eastern Montana and western North Dakota, rain at this time will do little to improve crop conditions. Parts of southern SK are also dry. Markets have started to give attention to the weather related conditions.
Planted acres decreased in the USA as well as Canada in 2017. Wide spread drought is affecting yield potential. JM Grain is forecasting US production of yellow peas to be reduced by one third compared to last year. JM Grain is also forecasting a reduction in green peas of half of last year’s crop. There are stocks of yellow and green peas left from 2016; however those farmers who are holding the peas are in a very defensive position as the majority of the stock is held in the drought areas.
The heart of Richlea lentil production is located in the center of this year’s drought. One would expect the market to move on green lentils. Red lentils are bogged down from last year’s record supply. Pending there are no big problems in India, Reds will lag this year even with decreased production.
Chickpeas, being the fickle crop they are, have two stories this year. Too dry and too wet. Acres have expanded in Montana, many of those in central Montana. The Golden Triangle region of Montana is for the first time battling ascochyta blight. If dry conditions do not prevail in the area by next week damage will be done to the crop. In eastern Montana there is no moisture; even chickpeas need some rain. Washington and Idaho will have a late crop.
Markets for pulse crops are shifting focus to the production of 2017. With this will come speculative markets as the trade attempts to anticipate the size and quality of this year’s crop.
Values for both green and yellow peas continue to establish at levels around $5.50 per bushel. Ample stocks remain from 2016 and selling has been steady by growers. Export markets are steady but lack bids to move prices higher. USDA and World Food program tenders have not effected the market as the quantity of the tenders has not been large enough to outpace grower selling. The Canadian dollar has recently weakened to 1.3635 providing an advantage for Canadian production. Bids to Canadian farmers remain unchanged however the change in currency has discounted the peas by approx. 3% making offers from Canada competitive.
Values have leveled off after a long slide from their highs in Dec Jan. There is demand holding green lentils at $26.00/cwt. Markets in India and South America are buying at these levels at a moderate pace. Much of the business for green lentils has been complete this year the unknown being the Indian market. As long as support from the market in India remains prices should maintain their current value. Red lentils are holding their value at 18.00. The Canadian and Australian crop are keeping the market demand met. There is little movement in price as there are enough supplies being offered to keep the market from going up on reds. A later start to spring could jump start these markets as the slide from the market highs were unfilled by corrections. Canada is forecasting 1 million less lentil acres.
This is the bright spot in the market. Current crop values are at record high numbers there has been little to trade therefore the focus of the market has been new crop. Montana Washington and Idaho are very seasonally wet and seeding has been delayed. Acres could be reduced as growers are unable to seed there saturated fields. For those that can plant there looks to be a reward as the market continues to demand more product for 2017.